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		<title>Calculating the Probability of God's Existence - Slashdot</title>
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		<meta name="description" content="Today in the car I heard an interview with Steven Unwin, a guy who in his new book claims to have come up with a number representing the probability of God's existence.  That number? 67%....">
	    
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		<span id="title-1592007" class="story-title"><a href="//slashdot.org/~wooby/journal" title="wooby's Journal"  class="skin">wooby's Journal:</a>  <a   rel="nofollow" href="//slashdot.org/journal/91505/calculating-the-probability-of-gods-existence">Calculating the Probability of God's Existence</a></span>

		
		
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		<time id="fhtime-1592007" datetime="on Monday November 29, 2004 @04:11AM">on Monday November 29, 2004 @04:11AM</time>
		
		
			
		
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				<p>Today in the car I heard an interview with Steven Unwin, a guy who in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0761526846/qid=1101714375/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/103-3462677-9632669?v=glance&amp;s=books&amp;n=507846">his new book</a> claims to have come up with a number representing the probability of God's existence.  That number? 67%.</p><p>The interviewer threw a lot at Unwin, and his responses were knowledgeable and coherent.  He was familiar with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_wager">Pascal's wager</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leibniz#Theodicy_and_optimism">Leibniz's take on theodicy</a>.</p><p>I haven't read Unwin's book, but I'm prepared to dismiss it outright.  I just don't think that there exists objective, quantitative data that can be plugged into some formula.  This whole approach of Unwin's reminds me of something I read in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zen_and_the_Art_of_Motorcycle_Maintenance">Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenence</a>.</p><p>In Zen, Pirsig argues that the difference between good science and bad science is not the difference between applying the scientific method correctly and applying it incorrectly.  His grand treatise on quality posits that an external, "prior-knowledge" - the ability of any given scientist to judge the quality of any observations he or she will plug into the Scientific Method - is what truly makes or breaks any scientific inquiry.  Thus, even the seemingly most objective theories are really skewed by a force acting at a level higher than the tools of science.</p><p>My instinct tells me this Unwin fellow exerts "prior-knowledge" in the book and in his theories when picking and choosing data to apply, but I have yet to find out.  I'll definitely be reading this book.</p>
			
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